United States

I have had hickory smoke in my jacket and AM radio humming like a tailgate generator, and then this number lands on the bar like a cast-iron skillet: 4,359 guns headed to Mexico, seized before they could end up in cartel hands.

The numbers DOJ put on the table

On February 18, 2026, the Department of Justice said that since January 20, 2025, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) has seized:

• 36,277 illegal crime guns and 2,317,999 rounds of ammunition from prohibited persons, gang members, and suppliers tied to transnational criminal organizations.
• Within that total, 4,359 firearms intercepted that were bound for Mexico.
• Also 648,975 rounds of ammunition headed the same direction, which DOJ framed as averaging over 1,600 rounds per day kept out of cartel hands.

And before anybody starts writing a Hollywood script about a single cinematic border takedown, DOJ did not lay out a neat public breakdown of where every seizure happened or which specific operations produced each piece of the total. What it did provide is a nationwide aggregate and a clear message: the pipeline got squeezed.

Not just a border issue

ATF Deputy Director Robert Cekada said in DOJ’s statement that this is not only a Southwest border problem. Translation: the cartel supply chain does not respect state lines, and neither can enforcement.

Fox says the focus changed

Fox News framed the story as a shift in ATF priorities under the Trump administration, away from a heavy emphasis on regulatory fights like ghost guns and pistol braces, and back toward gang networks, transnational organizations, and street crime. That framing sits right alongside DOJ’s seizure numbers.

Tools, not feelings

DOJ also described how ATF says it is doing the work: Crime Gun Intelligence tools like NIBIN, firearms tracing, touch DNA, and partnerships with state and local law enforcement. This is the under-the-hood stuff that maps networks instead of arguing about vibes.

Bottom line: DOJ’s aggregate announcement does not come with a public list of suspects, charges, or case outcomes tied to the totals. But as a national signal, it draws a bright line between lawful gun ownership and criminal trafficking, with the enforcement spotlight aimed at prohibited persons and traffickers tied to cartels and transnational criminal groups.

Keep choking the flow. Keep the Constitution in one hand and the warrant in the other. Live free, grill hard, and let consequences taste like consequences.

Federal agents seized 4,359 Mexico-bound guns and 648,975 rounds since January 20, 2025, as DOJ says ATF ramps up targeting traffickers tied to cartels and transnational criminal groups.

I can smell the charcoal and hear the AM radio crackling like a campfire confession, and then I read this story and it hits like a fryer basket dropped in hot oil. One minute you are a free American with a passport and a plan, the next minute you are a headline in Bangkok with your name spelled out like a warning label.

What happened in Bangkok

Fox News reports American tourist Stein Heath Cole was killed in Bangkok during what Thai authorities described as a relationship dispute that turned violent. Fox identifies Cole as 54 and from California. The incident happened on Monday, February 16, 2026, around 4:30 p.m. local time.

• Police claim Cole arrived at a shop with a 10-inch kitchen knife, and a fight erupted.
• His ex-girlfriend was identified as Nan Phawt Ar Cho, 24.
• Her current boyfriend was identified as Saw Nay Lin Oo, 26, and three other men were involved in the confrontation.

Cole was found on the pavement with both legs broken and five stab wounds. A knife and a metal pipe were found nearby. Fox reports four suspects were charged with jointly assaulting another person, causing death. One suspect was also reported to have been stabbed and taken to a hospital.

Bangmod Police district station Superintendent Col. Sonchai Poonphol described it as a personal relationship dispute. Police also alleged the woman’s relatives did not approve of the relationship and that there had been previous confrontations. Police said they coordinated with the U.S. Embassy on Monday.

Some Thai local reporting describes the suspects as Myanmar nationals and lists Cole’s age as 55 rather than 54, so that detail is not perfectly consistent across outlets. What is consistent is the core: a 10-inch knife, a metal pipe, a Bangkok sidewalk, and an American dead far from home.

Justice does not stop at the TSA checkpoint

This is Thailand’s criminal case, and these are Thai charges. I am not pretending a U.S. prosecutor is going to pop out of a suitcase and run the courtroom. But when Thai police say they coordinated with the U.S. Embassy, that is the doorway where American responsibility starts.

Families need clarity. Americans need facts. And the process needs daylight, not vibes, not rumors, not a fog machine and a press hit. Justice also means honesty about what happened, including whether Cole provoked the confrontation by producing a knife, as Thai police alleged.

Paradise brochures do not come with a rescue plan

Nothing in Fox’s report suggests a broader security incident or political violence. This appears personal. But personal violence is still violence, and the U.S. needs to treat overseas citizen safety like a real job, not an optional side quest.

I am a Trump guy. I like my country confident and my leaders allergic to excuses. I am not claiming the administration has already fixed this particular problem, because nothing in the reporting says that. I am saying what any common-sense American should demand: seriousness toward Americans overseas, real urgency, and follow-through that does not fade when the headlines cool.

An American is dead in Bangkok. Four suspects have been charged in Thailand. The U.S. Embassy was contacted. The rest is going to be slow, legal, and messy.

So here is the rally line, served hot off the grill: respect the passport, demand competence from your government, and keep your common sense switched on wherever you roam. Live free, grill hard, and do not outsource your survival to a brochure.

The grill was popping, the propane was hissing, and the AM radio was crackling like it had a personal vendetta against peace and quiet. That is when it hit me: New Hampshire, the land of “live free or die,” is getting drafted into another national political cage match, whether Granite Staters asked for it or not.

Warmington enters the ring

On February 18, 2026, Democrat Cinde Warmington officially launched her campaign for New Hampshire governor, taking on incumbent Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte as Ayotte runs for a second term. Warmington is a former member of New Hampshire’s Executive Council, and this is her second straight run for governor after losing the Democratic primary in 2024. Republicans have held the governor’s office for nearly a decade, first with Chris Sununu and now with Ayotte.

The affordability attack

Warmington’s main pitch is the one Democrats love like they love lecturing you about your pickup truck: affordability. She argues groceries, housing, electricity, and property taxes are crushing families, and she aims to pin that pain on Ayotte.

Now, governors do not set the price of eggs by yelling at a chicken. But elections are not a spreadsheet. They are a demolition derby, and Warmington is trying to duct-tape every rising bill to Ayotte’s bumper and see what sticks.

Trump, tariffs, and the ICE “warehouse” fight

Warmington also says she would stand up to President Donald Trump on issues like health care costs and tariffs, and she is campaigning against an effort to open an ICE detention facility in New Hampshire, calling it an “ICE warehouse.”

This part is not just talk radio fog. WBUR reports that documents released by Ayotte’s office detail plans to spend $158 million to turn a warehouse in Merrimack into a processing site that would house between 400 and 600 detainees, and WBUR reports the documents were marked Department of Homeland Security.

Ayotte is not exactly doing cartwheels for the project either. Fox reports she has had friction with the Trump administration over the past year and criticized Washington over a lack of transparency around the ICE facility.

Sanctuary bans and the law-and-order wedge

Ayotte signed two bills aimed at banning so-called sanctuary city policies and requiring or protecting cooperation with federal immigration enforcement, including a law described as requiring municipalities to comply with ICE detainers if safe to do so. Critics argue there were no sanctuary cities to ban, and NHPR notes the very term “sanctuary city ban” has been debated in New Hampshire politics.

The opioid industry hammer comes out

Ayotte’s campaign wasted no time attacking Warmington over past lobbying for the health care and pharmaceutical industries, including allegations tied to OxyContin and a pain clinic chain. That is not a side note in a governor’s race. That is a campaign sledgehammer.

And the Democratic lane is not empty

Fox points to Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern considering a run, and NHPR reports Newmarket businessman Jon Kiper is in the Democratic primary as well. Translation: Democrats are arriving with options, and still arguing over which one looks best under the TV lights.

New Hampshire is about to be a proxy war over Trump, immigration enforcement, and the cost of living. Live free, grill hard, and do not let the political class turn your state into their traveling circus.

New York City’s got that signature perfume: burnt coffee, hot brake pads, and the faint scent of “somebody in City Hall just discovered spreadsheets.” And right on cue, Mayor Zohran Mamdani is treating public safety like it’s a Jenga tower at a vegan barbecue.

What’s on the table

Fox News reported on February 18, 2026 that Mamdani is proposing a plan that trims the NYPD budget next year and cancels the previous administration’s plan to hire 5,000 additional officers. Budgets don’t do poetry. They do priorities.

The 5,000-officer plan got scrapped

Mayor Eric Adams had proposed hiring 5,000 more NYPD officers at the end of his term. Under that plan, the NYPD was set to add 300 officers in July 2026, then 2,500 in July 2027, and eventually reach 5,000 additional officers annually by July 2028, aiming for roughly 40,000 officers.

Mamdani’s approach caps the force closer to about 35,000, near current levels.

Fox also reported that Mamdani moved to cancel all orders signed by Adams following Adams’ Sept. 26, 2024 indictment, and that sweep included the proposed personnel increase. That is not “tidying up.” That is backing an F-150 over the filing cabinet and calling it reform.

The bigger budget math, and the property tax thundercloud

The Mayor’s Office press release dated February 17, 2026 describes a $127 billion Fiscal Year 2027 Preliminary Budget. The city says projected gaps across FY 2026 and FY 2027 were roughly $12 billion, then says it lowered the deficit to a remaining two-year gap of $5.4 billion after savings, revenue adjustments, and state support.

• Savings initiatives projected at $1.77 billion across the two fiscal years
• An upward revision of $7.3 billion in tax revenue
• State support including $1.5 billion from Gov. Kathy Hochul and $97 million in Foundation Aid

If the city cannot get new revenue authority, it says it will lean on property taxes and reserves. The preliminary budget assumes a 9.5% property tax rate increase, which the city says would generate $3.7 billion in FY 2027. Gothamist reported the framework also includes drawing nearly $1 billion from reserves plus $229 million from a retiree health benefits fund.

How big is the NYPD cut?

Gothamist reported a $22 million decrease to the NYPD’s $6.4 billion budget next year. Fox also highlighted language about “significantly reducing current vacancies,” with cuts potentially coming through unfilled positions. That is how governments do it: quietly, with empty chairs and a straight face.

The “replacement” plan is not funded yet

Gothamist also reported the preliminary budget did not include funding for Mamdani’s proposed Department of Community Safety, which he has described as a mental health response alternative for some 911 calls. Mamdani said it would show up later in an executive budget due in late April. As of the preliminary numbers, it is not funded.

The squeeze play

Mamdani is betting Albany will approve raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations, including higher personal income taxes on New Yorkers earning more than $1 million annually. If Albany doesn’t play ball, the property tax hammer is sitting right there.

You cannot patrol a subway platform with a promise. You cannot replace staffing with a slogan. Keep your budgets honest, keep your streets functional, and stop pretending fewer cops is some kind of moral cleanse. Live free, grill hard, and do not apologize.

I was perched on a cracked bar stool, grill smoke still glued to my hoodie like a merit badge, when Illinois got hit with a federal wake-up call loud enough to rattle the hubcaps. We are talking about who gets the privilege of piloting an 80,000-pound commerce cannon down American roads.

USDOT’s warning: 30 days, or the money starts disappearing

The U.S. Department of Transportation says the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration reviewed Illinois’ non-domiciled commercial driver’s license program and found nearly 1 in 5 licenses were issued illegally. The demand is simple: come into compliance within 30 days and revoke the illegally issued licenses, or Illinois risks losing federal highway funding.

What FMCSA says it found: 150 files, 29 failures

FMCSA’s letter to Illinois is dated February 17, 2026 and ties back to an Annual Program Review that started in August 2025. Illinois told FMCSA it had 10,088 unexpired non-domiciled CLPs or CDLs on the books. FMCSA sampled 150 records and found 29 that failed to comply with federal requirements.

• Bucket one: licenses issued with expiration dates that ran past the driver’s lawful presence documents.
• Bucket two: licenses issued without evidence Illinois verified lawful presence the way the rules require.

The letter also notes 28 additional transactions where Illinois did not retain a copy of a driver’s Employment Authorization Document or note the expiration date in its system, making it unclear whether the documents were unexpired at the time or whether the CDL expiration exceeded the lawful presence window.

FMCSA’s examples identify drivers by initials, and include cases involving citizens of Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Venezuela, Eritrea, El Salvador, Nigeria, Moldova, Singapore, plus multiple cases where citizenship is listed as unknown.

The funding hammer: 4% first, then 8%

If FMCSA makes a final determination of substantial noncompliance, the letter describes withholding up to 4% of certain federal-aid highway funds beginning in FY 2027, estimated at about $64.3 million for Illinois. If noncompliance persists beyond the first fiscal year, it can go up to 8%, estimated at about $128.6 million in the second and subsequent fiscal years of noncompliance.

And if Illinois wants to keep juggling chainsaws at the DMV, the letter also raises the possibility of FMCSA decertifying Illinois’ CDL program, which would stop the state from issuing, renewing, transferring, or upgrading CLPs and CDLs until it is back in substantial compliance.

Illinois pushes back

Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias condemned the threatened funding cut and said the office believes Illinois is "substantially compliant" and will conduct its own review. Illinois argues the FMCSA letter fails to recognize an extension granted to EAD holders tied to a federal policy on backlogged EAD renewals that Illinois says existed until October 31, 2025. Illinois also says it had already adopted the SAVE system to verify lawful immigration status for non-domiciled CDL applicants and added safeguards to retain and validate application documents.

Here is the whole steak, no tofu side: either the rules mean something, or they are just decorative throw pillows for government paperwork. Fix it, prove it, and keep the roads and the funding on solid ground.

Live free, grill hard, drive legal, and stop treating compliance like a suggestion.

I have smelled a lot of things in my life: tailpipe exhaust, burnt brisket, and bureaucratic nonsense. But there is a special stink when a powerful institution spends years acting like the calendar is a get-out-of-accountability card.

What happened

Fox News reports the Diocese of Camden in New Jersey has agreed to a $180 million bankruptcy settlement framework tied to clergy sexual abuse claims. Bishop Joseph A. Williams announced the framework in a letter dated February 17, 2026.

The proposal centers on a trust that would be funded by the diocese, its parishes, and insurers that previously covered the diocese. The money would be used to resolve abuse claims, but the deal is not final until the Bankruptcy Court approves it.

The numbers and the process

• About 300 survivors are involved in the claims described in the reporting.
• Fox News notes there was an earlier $87.5 million settlement, and victims’ attorneys say the newly announced $180 million total includes those earlier funds.
• Bishop Williams also referenced a previously confirmed reorganization plan in 2024 that established a trust funded with $87.5 million from the diocese and related Catholic entities.
• The public reporting does not spell out an exact, itemized breakdown for how much comes from the diocese versus parishes versus insurers.

Why it took bankruptcy to get here

The diocese is in Chapter 11, and that is where accountability goes to move at the pace of a DMV line with robes. Still, the steps matter. Bishop Williams’ letter says the Official Committee of Tort Claimant Creditors, described as the Survivors’ Committee, unanimously agreed to accept the terms of a final bankruptcy settlement.

Fox News also reports the diocese filed for bankruptcy after New Jersey relaxed its statute of limitations, which triggered a wave of lawsuits. That is not a vibe. That is the legal system refusing to let the clock do the dirty work.

The grand jury cloud over New Jersey

Fox News notes the settlement lands as New Jersey’s Supreme Court has cleared the way for a long-delayed state grand jury investigation into decades of alleged clergy abuse to move forward. NBC10 Philadelphia reported the state Supreme Court allowed the grand jury investigation to go forward in June 2025, and that Bishop Williams ended the diocese’s years-long opposition to that investigation in May 2025.

What to watch next

Bishop Williams called what survivors suffered a grave sin and a devastating betrayal, and said the proposed deal was supported by the Diocese’s College of Consultors and the Diocesan Finance Council. Now it comes down to court approval and whether the trust is implemented in a way that is fair instead of another maze with the exit sign painted on the wall.

Live free, grill hard, tell the truth, and make the powerful pay their tab like everybody else.

Nothing makes international bureaucracy move faster than a calendar conflict with President Donald J. Trump. On February 18, 2026, the United Nations Security Council shifted its scheduled Middle East session on Gaza from Thursday to Wednesday so diplomats could attend both that meeting and Trump’s inaugural Board of Peace gathering in Washington on Thursday, February 19, 2026.

What got moved, and why it matters

The plain, verified meat of the story is simple: the Security Council’s regular Middle East session was moved up a day to avoid a scheduling clash with Trump’s new Board of Peace meeting. Fox News, citing Associated Press reporting, framed the switch around diplomats trying to be in both places.

What the UN meeting is focused on

The Security Council session centers on:

• the Gaza ceasefire
• Israel’s expanding operations in the West Bank

Fox reports, again via the AP, that foreign ministers from the United Kingdom, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, and Indonesia are expected. The meeting was requested by Arab and Islamic nations last week.

Who is chairing and briefing

Security Council Report notes that the UK holds the Security Council presidency in February and invited minister-level participation, with UK foreign secretary Yvette Cooper expected to chair. Briefers are expected to include Rosemary DiCarlo, alongside civil society voices.

Trump’s Board of Peace, the invites, and the sign-ons

The White House posted on January 22, 2026 that Trump formally ratified the Charter of the Board of Peace at Davos, Switzerland during the World Economic Forum. Fox also reports Israel formally joined the Board of Peace on February 11.

Fox reports the White House invited Russia, Belarus, France, Germany, Vietnam, Finland, Ukraine, Ireland, Greece, and China. Poland and Italy said they would not join.

Money, manpower, and “demilitarization”

Fox reports Trump announced Monday that member states pledged more than $5 billion for humanitarian aid and reconstruction in Gaza, and committed thousands of personnel to an international stabilization force and local policing efforts. PBS, carrying the AP report on February 15, 2026, also described the $5 billion pledge and the personnel commitment, while noting Trump did not detail which nations would provide the money or personnel.

Fox also reports Trump said Hamas must uphold what he described as a commitment to full and immediate demilitarization.

And that’s the tell: when the UN changes its own schedule to clear space for a Thursday meeting in Washington, the global class just admitted, with a straight face and a rescheduled agenda, that Trump’s new table is one they cannot ignore.

The Red Hat Saloon smells like hickory smoke, hot grease, and bad decisions, which is also the official perfume of modern politics. The TV is hollering, the fryer is popping like fireworks in a Walmart parking lot, and Gallup just tossed another log on the national culture-war grill.

Gallup estimates 9% of U.S. adults identify as LGBTQ+

Gallup’s report (dated February 16, 2026) pegs 9% of U.S. adults as identifying as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or something other than heterosexual. In the same data, 86% identify as heterosexual and 5% did not give a response. Three numbers, one country, and everybody already arguing like it’s a tailgate scoreboard.

The trendline is the part people pretend not to see. Gallup says the 9% figure is essentially unchanged from last year, but it is more than double the 3.5% measured in 2012, the first year Gallup tracked this. They also note the U.S. sat around roughly 7% from 2021 through 2023.

How the number was measured

This was not a vibes survey conducted outside a kombucha bar. Gallup bases the estimate on 2025 telephone interviews done by ReconMR with a random sample of 13,454 adults across all 50 states and D.C., with a reported ±1 percentage point margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level. If you dislike the reading, yelling at the thermometer is still not medicine.

Young adults are driving the jump

The growth is not coming from your uncle Earl who thinks Wi‑Fi is a government dairy product. In Gallup’s latest breakdown:

• 23% of adults under 30 identify as LGBTQ+
• 10% of adults 30 to 49 identify as LGBTQ+
• 3% or less of adults 50 and older identify as LGBTQ+

Bisexual is the biggest slice

Gallup says the largest share of LGBTQ+ adults identify as bisexual, making up more than half of the subgroup and about 5% of the entire U.S. adult population. They report 17% of LGBTQ+ adults identify as gay, 16% as lesbian, and 12% as transgender, each representing between 1% and 2% of all U.S. adults. Another 6% cite another identity such as queer or pansexual.

Gallup also notes bisexual identification has grown sharply since 2020, rising from 3.1% of U.S. adults to the current 5.3%.

Politics turns identities into donor funnels

Gallup reports Democrats are much more inclined than Republicans to identify as LGBTQ+, pointing to alignment with party stances on same-sex marriage and other gay rights issues as a likely reason. They also note one of the smallest increases since 2012 is among Republicans, from 1.5% in 2012 to 1.9% today.

And here’s where I start sweating like a bald eagle over a hot propane tank: the professional activist class and the fundraising class treat these numbers like gasoline. They pour it on school boards, HR departments, and court fights, then act shocked when everything smells like smoke.

So yes, Gallup says 9% of adults identify as LGBTQ+. Fine. Put it on the scoreboard. Learn from it. Just don’t let career scolders and consultant empires turn it into a permanent emergency that clogs the courts and distracts the country from the basics. Now pass the brisket. Live free, grill hard, and do not apologize.

Tahoe Avalanche, Eight Dead: When America Ignores Warnings, the Mountain Collects
I can smell it from here, partner. That sharp, metallic cold that hits your lungs like you just licked a trailer hitch at dawn. Snow stacking up, wind hollering, and out near Lake Tahoe, the backcountry turned into a trap door with no apology and no refund.

What happened at Castle Peak

Fox News reported Wednesday, February 18, 2026, that eight skiers who went missing after an avalanche near Lake Tahoe were found dead, with one person still missing. Nevada County Sheriff Shannan Moon said the mission shifted from rescue to recovery.

The wider reporting lays out the timeline: the avalanche hit Tuesday, February 17, around 11:30 a.m. in the Castle Peak area near Donner Summit, northwest of Lake Tahoe. It involved a guided backcountry group.

• 15 people total
• 6 survived and were rescued later that day
• By Wednesday, 8 confirmed dead
• 1 person still missing

No names were released in the reporting referenced here, and I am not playing guess-who with other people’s heartbreak.

This was not a resort run

This was backcountry skiing, not a groomed slope with a lift ticket and a cocoa stand. The group was returning from remote huts near Frog Lake in rugged terrain, with a storm hammering the region. Rescuers fought brutal conditions, moving carefully so they did not trigger another slide.

Associated Press coverage described survivors using their gear to shelter themselves in the cold while they waited. The sheriff’s office said two survivors were taken to a hospital, and as of Wednesday night, one remained hospitalized in that reporting.

Capt. Russell Greene with the Nevada County Sheriff’s Office described the moment like this: “Someone saw the avalanche, yelled avalanche, and it overtook them rather quickly.”

The warnings were blaring

The Sierra Avalanche Center had warnings out for HIGH danger in the backcountry during this storm cycle, with messaging that traveling in, near, or below avalanche terrain was not recommended during HIGH danger. A National Weather Service avalanche watch message transmitted at the request of the Sierra Avalanche Center flagged the risk of large avalanches capable of burying or injuring people in the greater Lake Tahoe backcountry zone.

Investigators have said they will look into the decision to proceed with the trip despite the forecast, and there was no public reporting of criminal charges as of February 18, 2026.

After the snow, reality still bills you

California’s Office of Emergency Services said it was coordinating additional resources statewide to support search and rescue efforts near Castle Peak. Reporting around the storm also described major road closures and heavy snowfall in the region, including Interstate 80 closures around Donner Pass.

Eight families got the call nobody survives. One family is still waiting. Respect warnings, respect first responders, and stop treating nature like it is a customer service desk.

Teaser: Eight skiers were found dead and one is still missing after a Castle Peak avalanche near Lake Tahoe, a tragedy colliding with HIGH danger warnings and a monster storm that shut down the region.

The air in here smells like hickory smoke, hot grease, and the sweet sound of AM radio arguing with a spreadsheet. I’m perched like a tailgate prophet watching the political class do donuts, and the Democrats just hit the curb.

Democrats: about 70% favorable toward their own party

Fox News points to new AP-NORC polling showing about 70% of Democrats currently have a favorable view of the Democratic Party. Not 97. Not 90. Seventy. That is not “unity,” that is a family reunion where everybody is smiling through clenched teeth.

• September 2024: Democrats at 85% favorable toward their party
• October 2025: down to 67%
• February 2026: hovering around 70%

The poll Fox highlighted was conducted Feb. 5 to Feb. 8, 2026, among 1,156 adults. The overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.9 points. For Democrats (including leaners), it’s plus or minus 6 points.

Overall party ratings: nobody’s getting a parade

In the same AP-NORC topline, the Democratic Party sits at 35% favorable overall (27% somewhat favorable, 8% very favorable) and 54% unfavorable (30% very unfavorable, 24% somewhat unfavorable).

The Republican Party is at 36% favorable overall (21% somewhat favorable, 15% very favorable) and 54% unfavorable (35% very unfavorable, 18% somewhat unfavorable).

Fox also flagged that roughly a quarter of Americans feel negative about both parties, and only about 1 in 10 feel good about both.

Who Americans trust on key issues

• Economy: 31% Republicans, 26% Democrats, 11% both equally, 32% neither
• Immigration: 33% Republicans, 29% Democrats, 9% both, 28% neither
• Health care: 35% Democrats, 23% Republicans, 11% both, 31% neither
• Cost of living: 27% Republicans, 27% Democrats, 36% neither

Enforcement moves: majorities say Trump has gone “too far”

The topline also shows majorities saying President Trump has gone too far on certain actions: 61% say using federal law enforcement at public protests in U.S. cities; 62% say sending federal immigration agents into U.S. cities; and 52% say deporting immigrants living in the U.S. illegally.

One more tell: confidence in the military

In AP-NORC polling tied to the October 2025 shutdown fight, the public expressed the most confidence in those running the military, ahead of the Executive Branch and the Supreme Court, while Congress sat near the bottom.

So when Democrats can only pull about 70% favorability inside their own tent, it looks less like momentum and more like a check-engine light. Live free, grill hard, and do not let a broken party tell you your paycheck is imaginary.

Democrats are stuck near 70% favorability with their own voters while both parties stay unpopular overall. The mood is smoke, heat, and distrust, and the economy is the fire under every seat.