Germany’s 2025 Election: The War for Europe’s Soul and the Looming Trump Specter
By Justin Jest – Gonzo Journalist, Reluctant Realist, Connoisseur of Chaos
For the past 80 years, Germany has been the quiet backbone of Western Europe, keeping things efficient, stable, and occasionally dull. But nothing is stable anymore. The 2025 German elections weren’t just about who gets to be chancellor of the world’s fourth-largest economy. No, this was a referendum on the future of Europe itself.
It was a war between competing visions:
- Do the Germans continue as Europe’s grown-ups? Supporting Ukraine, defending NATO, and leading the EU?
- Or do they fall into chaos? Sliding into far-right nationalism, cutting deals with Putin, and dismantling the very system that has kept Europe from setting itself on fire for the past century?
The stakes could not be higher. And guess who has his tiny orange fingers all over this election?
Yup. Donald Trump.
Before we break down the fallout of this election, let’s rewind and see what was at stake—and why everyone from Kyiv to Washington to Moscow was losing their goddamn minds over it.
The Ukraine Question: Will Germany Keep Holding the Line?
The War That Will Define This Century
Ukraine is not some distant war for Germany. It is the single biggest security crisis in Europe since World War II—and how Germany handles it will decide whether Putin gets stopped or gets emboldened to keep going.
For two years, Germany—under Chancellor Olaf Scholz—has been one of Ukraine’s biggest supporters.
- €11 billion in military aid (2022–2024), including tanks, air defenses, and ammo.
- Cutting off Russian energy—no more Nord Stream pipelines pumping Putin’s gas into German homes.
- Holding together the EU’s united front on sanctions.
Scholz, despite his tendency to move slower than a drunk turtle, finally got Germany to embrace the idea that Europe has to defend itself. He called it “Zeitenwende”, or “a historic turning point”.
His main rival, Friedrich Merz (CDU), wants to double down.
- More weapons for Ukraine, faster.
- Long-range Taurus cruise missiles—something Scholz refused to send for fear of “escalating” with Russia.
- A full-throated push to defeat Putin.
Merz isn’t playing around. He said in a debate that the war could have ended sooner if Germany had just sent Ukraine the weapons it needed earlier.
He’s right. The West’s slow, cautious, incremental aid strategy has dragged this war out longer than necessary.
So what’s the problem?
Simple: Not everyone in Germany wants to keep supporting Ukraine.
The Rise of the Far-Right and the Russian Playbook
While Scholz and Merz were arguing over who can arm Ukraine faster, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) was out there selling a different idea entirely.
- End military aid to Ukraine.
- Lift the sanctions on Russia.
- Blame Germany’s economic crisis on the war.
Their argument? “Why are we paying for Ukraine’s war while Germans struggle?”
It’s bullshit, but it’s effective bullshit.
AfD leaders have cozied up to Putin, repeated Russian disinformation, and even sent their politicians on trips to Moscow to shake hands with Kremlin officials.
- Alice Weidel (AfD leader) literally met with Viktor Orbán before the election, calling Hungary’s strongman a “symbol of sovereignty.”
- AfD pushed the idea that Ukraine “provoked” the war—a talking point straight out of Moscow’s playbook.
Their real goal is to turn Germany into a pro-Russian Trojan horse inside the EU. And they were closer to power than ever.
If AfD had won enough seats to force a coalition, Germany might have walked away from Ukraine, triggering a collapse in Western support.
Trump’s Hand in the Election: The U.S. Tries to Boost Germany’s Far-Right
Here’s where it gets even uglier.
Donald Trump absolutely wanted AfD to gain power.
- Elon Musk literally endorsed AfD on social media.
- J.D. Vance (Trump’s VP) met with AfD leaders in Munich—a move that enraged Germany’s mainstream parties.
- Trump’s circle pushed German voters toward nationalism and isolationism, knowing that a far-right Germany would torpedo NATO and pull support from Ukraine.
When Trump’s VP openly endorsed Germany’s far-right, German officials went ballistic.
Chancellor Scholz snapped:
“That is not appropriate, especially not among friends and allies.”
Translation:
“Get the fuck out of our elections, you authoritarian prick.”
Even CDU leader Merz—who is center-right—flatly refused to work with AfD, saying they were “fundamentally incompatible with democracy.”
That firewall held.
AfD won seats, but no mainstream party will touch them—meaning they’re still locked out of power. Germany dodged the bullet—for now.
The Election Fallout: What Happens Next?
With AfD blocked from power, what does this mean for Ukraine, NATO, and Europe?
Here’s what to expect:
1. Germany’s Support for Ukraine Will Continue (But Might Get More Aggressive)
- If Merz becomes chancellor, expect MORE weapons, FASTER.
- Taurus missiles might finally be sent to Ukraine.
- Germany could lead NATO in putting real pressure on Russia.
Even if Scholz somehow stays in government, support for Ukraine remains locked in. The firewall against Putin appeasement held firm.
2. Germany Will Stay in NATO—But Could Start Taking More Control
With Trump actively trying to sabotage NATO, Germany knows it has to step up its defense game.
- Defense spending just hit 2% of GDP for the first time in years.
- Germany is preparing for the possibility that the U.S. withdraws from Europe under Trump.
- Expect more investment in European defense cooperation—independent of the U.S.
Germany is waking up to the reality that America might not be a reliable ally anymore—and this election reinforced that.
3. Russia Is Pissed—Because Their Plan Failed
- Putin was banking on AfD breaking Germany’s pro-Ukraine stance.
- That didn’t happen.
- The new government will continue to back sanctions and supply weapons.
Russia hates this outcome. Which means it’s good for democracy.
Final Thoughts: Germany Just Saved the West—for Now
The stakes of this election were insane.
- If AfD had entered government, NATO might have collapsed.
- Ukraine could have lost its biggest European backer.
- Germany might have drifted into full-on nationalist insanity.
Instead?
The firewall held.
Germany is still leading Europe in supporting Ukraine, holding NATO together, and keeping the EU strong.
But make no mistake—this was a warning shot.
- The far-right is rising in Germany.
- Trump is actively meddling in European elections.
- Putin is playing the long game.
If we don’t take this seriously, we won’t be so lucky next time.
Because next time, the firewall might not hold.
And then? The whole goddamn world changes.
